Jay P. Granat, Ph.D.
The 2011 Men’s Australian Open will be an interesting contest between Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic. So, who will win and why?
What determines who wins big tennis matches?
The coauthor of one my books, Carlton Chin and I have studied the winners of big games in detail in our book Who Will Win The Big Game: 50 Characteristics of Championship Athletes, Coaches And Teams.
I spend a lot of time coaching world class athletes from many different sports. Carlton is an expert in crunching numbers on everything from the stock market to sporting events.
We believe that Djokovic will win for the following reasons:
- Djokovic leads Murray 4-3 in their matchups with one another.
- Djokovic had a slight edge in his ability to play big points.
- Djokovic has an extra day of rest going into this match.
- Murray has added pressure on him to be an Englishman to win a Grand Slam.
- Djokovic appears to be looser, fun loving and quite casual about the match.
- Murray is 0-2 in Grand Slam Finals. Djokovic is 1-2 in Grand Slam Finals. Our research indicates that previous performance in big games is quite important in predicting winners of subsequent big games.
- Djokovic has great momentum after his impressive victory over Roger Federer.